@Boothy1979; Fred makes a good, valid point about a longer lead time than Dec22/Jan; possibly 18 months. Lots of dependencies though affecting future lead times; e.g. size of the Golf order backlog to work through, how long it will take for VW’s supply chain to get back to anything approaching normality, continued impact of Covid (e.g. a new surge of cases in China has forced VW to shut down production facilities in affected areas; any new future variants affecting Europe could see VW taking similar action with the Wolfsburg plant).
If it does transpire that an estimated Dec22/Jan23 delivery becomes a May/June 23 delivery, then assuming VW increase their prices every 6 months or so, there could be a further 2 price increases on top of next month’s increase before you take delivery which increases the chance of the list price tipping over £40k.
It is a very good deal you’ve been offered and IMHO life’s too short to dwell on if’s, buts and maybe’s, but in your position I’d be assuming there’s a realistic chance that the list price could well be above £40k by the time you take delivery. I’d like to be proved wrong though!