Well how much do you think they would put it on the forecourt for? Only reason I say is because the place I got this one from had a 10 plate with 38000 miles up for 20k. I reckon mine will have done about 30k in that period and surely they can't be expecting to make about 4/5k on top, they guy who traded that in done it for a new r. 1/2 k on top yes but not 4/5.
My gfv is 14,748 so even if I got 17 for it I'd have over 2k. Like is said if I have to chuck a grand or so into the next deal then so be it.
Will query today about the 3 years and see what it calculates at. I'm still getting a new car for 300 a month so cant argue really
Also won't the gfv on a 3 year deal go up so depending on the depreciation of the car the difference may not be that much, I don't see a 4 year old car suddenly be worth a lot less then when it was 3 years old.
If you expect to get £3500 off the list of an R then they will offer you CAP value for your trade-in, which means that if you have an 18 month old GTI/GTD at point of change (as a few of us here changing do have), what you will be given (£18-19k) will be £4k less than the forecourt sticker price.
They'll be wanting to make a solid £4k between the 2 cars, if they're only making £1k on a heavily discounted R, they'll be wanting to make £3k on the p/x. An £18.5k p/x 5DR 63 plate GTD is looking at £24k forecourt price right now, come March 15 when it's 18 months old it'll be up for £22.5k and they'll accept someone haggling a grand off that - £3k made.
Yes the GFV will be greater on a 3 year old car - a 5DR manual is up there at £18600 for 3 years/30k miles. So for you paying £308 a month = 3696 paid in year 4 and you are seeing a reduction in the GFV for 4th year of around £2500 - but 1/3 of what you pay on solutions (approx) is interest, so it's worth £2500 less and you've paid off about £2500 capital of your 4th year £3696, so monthly cost between 3 and 4 years will be about the same on a vanilla R. Add the options and that's what makes a big change, you are adding a few grand's worth of equipment that will lose 80% of it's purchase price. To spread that loss over 4 years instead of 3 will make 4 years a little cheaper.
Your quoted GFV seems a little low actually (£14748), 4 years at average (40k miles) mileage is coming in at around £15600 3DR/£16300 5DR on the solutions web page, not sure how you get a figure of £14748 unless the mileage has been jacked up on the Solutions finance quote. That figure doesn't include extras, if you are getting NAV Pro and DCC, i'd expect to add £500, bringing you up to £16100/£16700 (3dr/5dr). At best £1500 on to that at best to get your true px.
With an adjusted GFV (for your options) of £16100, expect £17500 (giving you £1400 equity) and it will be up on the forecourt for £21k at 4 years old (because it's better than the MK6). As the cars get older and more of them end up outside the VW dealership network in car supermarkets etc, and the dealerships do lower their prices to remain competitive. Chopping in between 2 and 3 years usually allows you to minimise your depreciation while still being in a newish car to the end of term and being fully covered by warranty. Always expect £1000-1500 over GFV for your p/x if you are getting a great discount on the new one and you won't be disappointed.