GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis

[OF1]

why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May? 
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

I ordered mine in April and have an estimated build week of 37 at the minute.

EDIT: 37, not 27!

[lambo1984]

why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May? 
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

I ordered mine in April and have an estimated build week of 37 at the minute.

EDIT: 37, not 27!

Noway that's scandal that I'm hopeing I get a build week less than 30 as I haven't added any extras jus a pearlescent black paint but the way things are going it would surprise me if mine was over 30. JOKE!

[Kendo44]

If you've got BW confirmed on the website we're relatively confident that means the car will be built in about 4 weeks time.  Did it just switch recently?  So in this case I'd expect wk26.  How long ago was the order placed?  Seems odd they estimate Aug/Sept if the website had updated, unless they are being conservative.  The caveat is that it's not clear how the wk22 update going on will affect this, they might be updating things further out than usual.  If they are we could be seeing the start of many of us getting BW confirmed but the BW being more than the usual 4 weeks away.  The website doesn't give a specific week unfortunately.  You should have an order form from your dealer with the number on, in my case I had to sign and return it so I took a copy for my records.  If you are BW confirmed now I can manually update your entry if it is obvious which one it is, I'll check tomorrow.

There are a few unknowns here.  I'm expecting an email about my order from VW tomorrow and I think I will try to wring some info out of them on how this process works as it would make it a lot easier for all off us if we were confident of what things mean!

Hi Bill thanks for your reply I filled in all the details on your form, other than build week. The VW configurator changed to Build week confirmed on Monday of this week.
Hopefully this info helps you.

Thanks again :-)

Quick update, I received an email from my dealer today, saying he expected to have my car early August :-)

[Bill_the_Bear]

Got a few more entries posted on the survey last couple of days so I thought I would update this thread with some more results:

Here are some averages (43 unique entries used, 33 with estimated, 6 with confirmed)

Average week ordered	17.1
Average estimated build week	31.9
Average confirmed build week	28.7
Average from ordered to estimated	15.2
Average from ordered to confirmed	13.2

So on average we might expect confirmed BWs 2 weeks ahead of the estimated ones.  Have to be careful here as I think the variance is large, but haven't had time to calculate it.  Sample size remains small, as ever.

Now if you split out only the 6 confirmed BW orders the average estimated BW was 17 and the average confirmed BW was 13.2... almost 4 weeks earlier than the estimated.  However, I'm not 100% certain about using this as a couple of the confirmed orders had very poor estimates initially and they skew the data.  Ignoring them puts the average improvement back to about 2 weeks.

I want to try to correlate dates with specific options to see which, if any, reliably change the lead time.  I think it is hard to do though.  DSG in particular, usually said by VW to give a delay, does not seem to have any affect on the wait.  Possibly the sunroof... possibly.

[CraigW]

Got a few more entries posted on the survey last couple of days so I thought I would update this thread with some more results:

Here are some averages (43 unique entries used, 33 with estimated, 6 with confirmed)

Average week ordered	17.1
Average estimated build week	31.9
Average confirmed build week	28.7
Average from ordered to estimated	15.2
Average from ordered to confirmed	13.2

So on average we might expect confirmed BWs 2 weeks ahead of the estimated ones.  Have to be careful here as I think the variance is large, but haven't had time to calculate it.  Sample size remains small, as ever.

Now if you split out only the 6 confirmed BW orders the average estimated BW was 17 and the average confirmed BW was 13.2... almost 4 weeks earlier than the estimated.  However, I'm not 100% certain about using this as a couple of the confirmed orders had very poor estimates initially and they skew the data.  Ignoring them puts the average improvement back to about 2 weeks.

I want to try to correlate dates with specific options to see which, if any, reliably change the lead time.  I think it is hard to do though.  DSG in particular, usually said by VW to give a delay, does not seem to have any affect on the wait.  Possibly the sunroof... possibly.

I think we can safely summise now that there is no rhyme nor reason as to why some cars are built before others even though they may have been ordered later. I think this one is going to remain a mystery

[monkeyhanger]

I think we can safely summise now that there is no rhyme nor reason as to why some cars are built before others even though they may have been ordered later. I think this one is going to remain a mystery

If there is any logic to why a late order is built earlier than an earlier order (with no order changes to bump an order) it has to be something to do with the dealership allocation. 1st order from a dealership that hasn't had any previous orders should trump order 3 or 4 from another dealership, even if they order 4/6/8 weeks after the dealership with multiple orders in.

This could explain why some cars get shifted forward or back with no seeming reason. Either there must be some "spare" unallocated orders that VW are holding for a dealership pot of 1st orders not yet made, and if they don't get filled with new 1st orders within a certain time then other non-1st orders already in move forward a week....

OR... if VW are allocated up for orders in already and a dealership slaps in his first order, could that bump back other orders already in that aren't the first order for a particular dealership?

[Bill_the_Bear]

These are questions only VW can answer.  We'd have to pressure our helpful Twitter lady to see if she can find out...

Unfortunately we'll never get enough information ourselves as we'd need to have people on here covering every order from half a dozen dealers to be able to then analyse the data.  Thats not going to happen.