There are numerous reasons why it will be out by a certain percentage, especially in the colder months.
There are all kinds of things to do with the fuel itself, waxing points, specific density at differing temperatures, efficiency of the fuel filter, fuel pump etc.
The other thing of course is that these MPG readouts are more of a convenience for us as drivers, and the ECU is only measuring the things it has been told to. It gathers information from things like pulse width of injection, fuel flow FROM tank (remember that a lot of fuel in summer months gets sent back to tank), engine load, and road speed. What is worth mentioning is that on the live display as soon as the throttle is released the live MPG goes out of range as the engine does not pump fuel as it uses inertia from the wheels/flywheel to maintain the spinning of the engine. This is logged by the ECU which will artificially inflate your MPG figure of course. I found that going down certain roads around me I could ramp my live MPG average to 100MPG+ due to going down hills with no throttle.
I think it is safe to say that as winter approaches you can utterly disregard the readout from the computer as the log points are not representative of what you drive, I.E. it could miss a short trip to the shops, but would update numerous times on a long motorway drive.
There is of course the issue of active regen if you have a DPF.
HTH's.