Mate it is like a needle in a haystack, it could be a series of things.
The first that may will tell you as I got told is that the drop in temp you will see less MPG, this wasn;t the case for me.
Could possibly be the MAF on it's way out.
It could be a number of things mate, but first and foremost, find someone that can Vagcom you car for you to scan for any faults, although the MAF doesn;t always come up which is a pain in the rectum.
Keep us posted mate, but really your MPG don;t sound bad at all but I can see your concern as it's a horrible drop.