VW have their own projections for how many of a particular model they will sell, down to how many of a particular trim level.
You see things written like "in Germany 25% of the Mk8's sold will be a GTI"... that comes from VW.
They also understand how many will be leased and how many will be PCP or cash.
Car manufacturing and retail is very much driven by projected demand figures and they really tightly control manufacture using the numbers. Sometimes though seismic shifts in demand occur that they could predict or supply side problems catch them out.
In this particular moment its both consumer demand shifting AND component supply AND output capacity.
I'd not want to be at the production planning meetings at VW in the last 12 months! (I work with production planning...)