Where are used car prices with the MK8 launch and other worldly troubles?

[TippEx]

I think it's safe to say that the world has never been through anything quite like this before in our lifetime and anything in this thread my own opinions included would be an educated guess at most.  I'm personally hoping that those in the motor trade and the many other businesses that have been adversely affected by this, some of whom are likely to be fellow forum members, manage to come out of this okay at the other side.

[barrym381]

Well, car makers have lost a huge pile of money which they might need to get back.

That either means they need to put prices up or down.

Additionally, vast numbers of people will be unemployed by the end of this but equally interest rates will be super low.

It's a strange situation, not like any before it and impossible to say which of those conflicting positions will play out.

I heard Vw are losing 1.6 billion a week in this situation 

[Pretzel]

I think it's safe to say that the world has never been through anything quite like this before in our lifetime and anything in this thread my own opinions included would be an educated guess at most.  I'm personally hoping that those in the motor trade and the many other businesses that have been adversely affected by this, some of whom are likely to be fellow forum members, manage to come out of this okay at the other side.

Well said.

[fredgroves]

I heard Vw are losing 1.6 billion a week in this situation 

Story I posted up said 2bn euros a week...

[mcmaddy]

Couple of factories starting again from next week with most others starting up again from the week after.

[monkeyhanger]

Couple of factories starting again from next week with most others starting up again from the week after.

Yep, there's only so far they'll.go on keeping the contraction rate and death rate down vs keeping the economy going. As more countries go back online, we'll be under greater pressure as a country to get back to work and "keep up" with those that have or will got society moving again shortly.

[Yusee]

OP requested keeping "on topic" to just car pricing. Not sure how that can be achieved, as it's all about the virus.
Economies may start moving again after 2 or 3 months of virtually no activity but the problem then is the very real prospect of a further surge in cases.
The billion dollar question is how many people have already had the virus? Around 100,000 recorded cases in UK to date. Assuming that's only 20% of actual cases, let's say 500,000 people have had it. That still leaves 60million people susceptible. It's very contagious. It carries on spreading until most people are immune.
I really can't see that governments who have almost completely shut down their economies for weeks on end are just going to stand by while their ICU departments are overwhelmed again. They will lockdown again.
Even if a second wave doesn't come and there isn't further lockdown, there remains significant threat of this. And that's hardly going to build consumer confidence.
The problem isn't going away until the whole world is vaccinated- experts say 18 months minimum to achieve this.
Dealers may not be desperate to sell stock now, but they soon will be. I don't know what sort of discount can be achieved, but if I was offered 5% off a used car, I wouldn't be interested.

[barrym381]

OP requested keeping "on topic" to just car pricing. Not sure how that can be achieved, as it's all about the virus.
Economies may start moving again after 2 or 3 months of virtually no activity but the problem then is the very real prospect of a further surge in cases.
The billion dollar question is how many people have already had the virus? Around 100,000 recorded cases in UK to date. Assuming that's only 20% of actual cases, let's say 500,000 people have had it. That still leaves 60million people susceptible. It's very contagious. It carries on spreading until most people are immune.
I really can't see that governments who have almost completely shut down their economies for weeks on end are just going to stand by while their ICU departments are overwhelmed again. They will lockdown again.
Even if a second wave doesn't come and there isn't further lockdown, there remains significant threat of this. And that's hardly going to build consumer confidence.
The problem isn't going away until the whole world is vaccinated- experts say 18 months minimum to achieve this.
Dealers may not be desperate to sell stock now, but they soon will be. I don't know what sort of discount can be achieved, but if I was offered 5% off a used car, I wouldn't be interested.

What kind of discount would you be looking for if 5% isn’t enough

[fredgroves]

Just to give you some hard numbers here... My current gtd is worth about 14k trade. It would retail for about 18k. Of the 4k gross profit, 20% is vat, probably five hundred is the vw warranty package and you've got probably two man days of your rolled up labour costs. I'd guess there is net about fifteen percent margin. On that basis no sane business is going to want to give away more than five percent. This isn't about knocking some private seller down a few quid, this is retail business.

[Yusee]

OP requested keeping "on topic" to just car pricing. Not sure how that can be achieved, as it's all about the virus.
Economies may start moving again after 2 or 3 months of virtually no activity but the problem then is the very real prospect of a further surge in cases.
The billion dollar question is how many people have already had the virus? Around 100,000 recorded cases in UK to date. Assuming that's only 20% of actual cases, let's say 500,000 people have had it. That still leaves 60million people susceptible. It's very contagious. It carries on spreading until most people are immune.
I really can't see that governments who have almost completely shut down their economies for weeks on end are just going to stand by while their ICU departments are overwhelmed again. They will lockdown again.
Even if a second wave doesn't come and there isn't further lockdown, there remains significant threat of this. And that's hardly going to build consumer confidence.
The problem isn't going away until the whole world is vaccinated- experts say 18 months minimum to achieve this.
Dealers may not be desperate to sell stock now, but they soon will be. I don't know what sort of discount can be achieved, but if I was offered 5% off a used car, I wouldn't be interested.

What kind of discount would you be looking for if 5% isn’t enough

I could only really answer that question if I was in the market- which I'm not. The 10-15% mentioned above doesn't sound unreasonable to me.