when the top rad hose is hot and the bottom one isn't with car standing still then the coolant does not make it through the rad, otherwise the bottom hose should be almost as hot as the top (when engine is at 90 degrees) and the fans should kick in somewhere near 105..... if they are running e.g. cos you have aircon on the it can be normal that the bottom hose is fairly cold when it just sits there idling. the thermostat is not an on/off device but opens gradually with temperature.
the recent issue points towards sensor thou, this can be in addition to thermostat or a standalone issue. have you checked and compared temperature in the gauge on speedo and vcds to make sure they're showing about the same? although it is not unknown for these sensors to fail on mk4 engines. my neighbour had the same issue on his octavia. in his case the temperature in the gauge jumped up and down quite dramatically in an almost digital fashion.