as the mk5 is out that will also mean he could pick up a golf cheaper now than he could a year ago.
True, but its when the Mk5's start to appear on the used market that they really affect the used values of the Mk4's, and the will (for a VW) drop like a stone. It nearly always happens. He will loose more money on a gOlf than he will on a Beetle, guaranteed.
There are only a few cars that I know of when the outgoing model has commanded a higher premium than its replacement (Subaru is one of them, when it launched the Bugeye in '01).