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Model specific boards => Golf mk7 => Topic started by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 16:07

Title: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 16:07
Hi Guys,

Please follow the below link to a form you can fill in with your order details.  Don't worry there is nothing personal asked for on the form.  This should help us put some stats together to understand what might be causing the delays in some/all orders.  I may post some graphs as a result of this but I won't post any specific details such as names/dates/order numbers.  I don't believe this information is sensitive but I won't post it anyway.  Giving a unique nickname is important to ensure there are not duplicates, and giving as much detail on dates and numbers is helpful, but don't feel you have to!

http://billthebear.wufoo.com/forms/mk7-gtigtd-order-analysis/



Some initial analysis.  Looking at the order numbers, with a couple of odd exceptions (and I also corrected what appeared to be some typos, its not 2012 any more guys!), there is a correlation between when you order and the number you get.

However, there is no correlation between the order you get and your estimated BW!

Thanks to those who provided the entire order number.  This is very helpful and soon I should be able to compare order number to website status and see if there is a correlation there.

(http://i.imgur.com/mTasIM1.png) (http://imgur.com/mTasIM1)



I am aware much of this info has been posted in threads and one of the stickys, but we're having a hard time keeping track of it so this would help a lot.

UPDATE: I noticed one or two of you have gone back and filled the form in again with more data.  This is good!  As long as you use the same nickname you can do this and I can see that additional information has been added, rather than a duplicate entry.

Bear.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Valenni on 22 May 2013, 16:35
Done!

Nice work dude.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 16:37
Ok I guess people are happy as they're filling it in already.  I'll remove the request for feedback!  :tongue:

Hopefully when enough of us have entered details we'll see some patterns emerge.  I'll update the original post when that happens.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Sootchucker on 22 May 2013, 16:45
Done. Looks good Bear.

(might want to check the spelling of Adaptive (for ACC) on the form)  :grin:

Also, although you have only asked for 4 numbers minimum of the o/n, it won't let you do that and doesn't allow 1234xxxx for instance - so I just put down my full order number - between you and me eh ?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 16:48
Done. Looks good Bear.

(might want to check the spelling of Adaptive (for ACC) on the form)  :grin:

Also, although you have only asked for 4 numbers minimum of the o/n, it won't let you do that and doesn't allow 1234xxxx for instance - so I just put down my full order number - between you and me eh ?

Yeah, I have problems with speelings.  My bad on the order number.  I thought it would allow xxxx.  Anyone who doesn't want to give their full number (which I won't pass on if you do) please just use for example 22220000, with 0000 in place of the digits you are leaving out.  Need to see at least the first 4 though, preferable the whole number.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: AAddict on 22 May 2013, 16:51
I'm in
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Sootchucker on 22 May 2013, 16:52
Woz only kidin Bear, honistely, my spellins also shoking  :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 22 May 2013, 16:53
Yeah! Nice work Bear... Can't wait for the results although I thought you'd have the results up by now, judging by the speed at which you work  :grin:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 22 May 2013, 17:06
Done! Excellent work as always Bear, I look forward to the results!!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: linc-dub on 22 May 2013, 17:21
Unable to complete as you don't list Carbon Grey in the Colours!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 17:25
Unable to complete as you don't list Carbon Grey in the Colours!

Hmm... how did that little one slip through? :whistle:.  Give me 60 seconds and try again!

EDIT: Done, it doesn't appear on the VW website so that is how I missed it.  Another balls up from our favourite manufacturer?  Or is this the same as "Limestone Grey" ???
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: linc-dub on 22 May 2013, 17:28
No Limestone Grey is completely different to Carbon Grey - If Carbon Grey was not available I was going to have Tornado Red
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 17:36
Right, I'm off to loiter around the local VW dealer's car park looking for suspiciously wrapped mk7s, I'll take my camera. :evil:

When I get home I'll check the survey thingy, so keep filling it in guys!  Need lots of responses to make conclusions.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 22 May 2013, 18:27
Done  :smiley: :smiley:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Chriscav on 22 May 2013, 18:44
Just completed! :)
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Hawaii-Five-O on 22 May 2013, 19:15
DONE.

Could you add some additional fields for 'Warranty' and 'Service Plans'. However I doubt this would effect our orders at the factory as its a dealer obligation.

Good work Bill!

Where will the results be posted?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 22 May 2013, 19:28
Just updated mine Bear, good work  :smiley:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: blueheaduk on 22 May 2013, 19:31
It's a good idea, and good effort on you for putting it together... But is this info really gonna help us get our cars any quicker?  :drool:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 22 May 2013, 19:34
It's a good idea, and good effort on you for putting it together... But is this info really gonna help us get our cars any quicker?  :drool:

No but it takes our mind off the wait!  :smiley:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 22 May 2013, 19:34
But is this info really gonna help us get our cars any quicker?  :drool:

Haha, we wish!  Helps pass the time though eh?!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 22 May 2013, 22:47
Ok we've had 25 replies, good job chaps.  Most don't have confirmed BWs though, I think we need more replies with BW before a picture will emerge.  Anyone who gets one or calls in to VW can do the form again filling in only the confirmed BW and whatever they have to and using the SAME nickname and I can sort through it fine.

I'll see if I can post results of what we have anyway but will probably be tomorrow now.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 22 May 2013, 22:48
Thanks Bear! Hopefully we'll all have confirmed BWs on Monday ie BW22.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 23 May 2013, 15:18
Just wanted to assure you chaps I haven't forgotten about this (now have 29 replies).  However, I'm snowed under at work as my boss was looking sad and I foolishly volunteered to do some of his work to help him.  A major tactical error on my part.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 23 May 2013, 15:20
Not good enough Bear!!  :grin: :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 23 May 2013, 15:20
Not good enough Bear!!  :grin: :laugh:

I know :cry:

Must learn to get my priorities right.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 23 May 2013, 15:34
Not good enough Bear!!  :grin: :laugh:

I know :cry:

Must learn to get my priorities right.

Exactly, I mean, work pays the bills and for the new car but this comes first!  :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 23 May 2013, 15:42
Ok we've had 25 replies, good job chaps.  Most don't have confirmed BWs though, I think we need more replies with BW before a picture will emerge.  Anyone who gets one or calls in to VW can do the form again filling in only the confirmed BW and whatever they have to and using the SAME nickname and I can sort through it fine.

I'll see if I can post results of what we have anyway but will probably be tomorrow now.

I took confirmed BW to be a tracker confirmed build happening, not what VW UK told me - I will get mine and my dad's amended if that's the criteria for confirmed. :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 23 May 2013, 15:44
I took confirmed BW to be a tracker confirmed build happening, not what VW UK told me - I will get mine and my dad's amended if that's the criteria for confirmed. :laugh:

I've never seen a tracker page with a confirmed BW what do they look like?  Does it actually give a week number?  Or does it just say "confirmed"?  What we need is the number.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: HA54SYM` on 23 May 2013, 18:10
My tracker page says confirmed build week, but I had to call the dealer to find out which week it was confirmed for.

This happened start of this week.

Dave
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Chriscav on 23 May 2013, 18:38
re-submitted after todays phone call from the dealer.
Week 33 has been confirmed.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 24 May 2013, 07:48
Just seeing Chriscav's post above I wonder whether it's worth mentioning whether a broker is used. Using a broker might push you back down the queue a little if the supplying dealership is hammering their allocation because of heavily discounted orders. On second thoughts it might be too difficult a variable to consider and maybe when you placed the order is a better gauge of where you might be in a particular dealership's allocation queue.  :shocked:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 24 May 2013, 10:13
Guys,

I've pulled all the responses so far but sadly out of 31 entries only 2 actually have a confirmed build week.  I know there should be a lot more of us than that!

I can run the analysis on the estimated week but as we've previously discussed its not likely to be very accurate.  Any thoughts?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 24 May 2013, 11:00
Bill the bear: Depends on the source of "estimated". I consider my conversation with dealer and VW UK only an estimated date. Until they can categorically say "it's getting built next week" I don't consider it confirmed. Quoted week 26 for me is still only a provisional week as far as VW UK are confirmed, although they admit that it should only be brought forward at this point if it moves at all.

Still, an "estimated" date for an order that's come from the dealer's mouth which hasn't been amended in the meantime is probably as "definite" as you can get right now.

Based on estimated dates, are you seeing anything like no-one with ACC or sunroof getting a car made before week 32 etc? I think I may be amongst the earliest BW for a GTD from my recollection of other postings.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 24 May 2013, 11:06
Bill the bear: Depends on the source of "estimated". I consider my conversation with dealer and VW UK only an estimated date. Until they can categorically say "it's getting built next week" I don't consider it confirmed. Quoted week 26 for me is still only a provisional week as far as VW UK are confirmed, although they admit that it should only be brought forward at this point if it moves at all.

Still, an "estimated" date for an order that's come from the dealer's mouth which hasn't been amended in the meantime is probably as "definite" as you can get right now.

Based on estimated dates, are you seeing anything like no-one with ACC or sunroof getting a car made before week 32 etc? I think I may be amongst the earliest BW for a GTD from my recollection of other postings.

I get what you are saying.  However, at least four people who give me the entire order number have "BW confirmed" showing on the website, yet only one of them could give a confirmed BW in the survey.  Their dealers should be able to in these cases and from people who haven't responded yet or didn't give the full order number there must be even more than four!

I'm the only one who has ordered the sunroof and my order is "estimated" at BW37... by far the longest wait I think :angry:.  That is the only option so far which seems to cause a delay, but I need more data :undecided:.

I don't really want to drop the sunroof on a chance it might bring my order forward a few months.  I don't really mind waiting in theory, but I'm not keen on the prospect of sitting here for another two months while everyone else is posting lovely pictures and driving past my office window in their shiny new cars!  I didn't expect to be the only one still not built by mid September.  I actually ordered earlier than most people who filled in the survey! haha
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 24 May 2013, 11:47
VW must be doing something with the "track my order" data - checked mine today and although it is still "processing your order", my colour change has kicked in, now showing Tornado Red against my details instead of Deep Black Pearl.

Just looked at my dad's order and his is in "build week confirmed" status, still showing Deep Black Pearl as colour (He ordered Tornado Red and made no changes). He'll be happy with getting free paint (he'd considered it when I was getting DBP but wasn't prepared to pay £500 for it) as he won't be paying for something he didn't order.

The info above suggests that my info from VW UK trumps what the dealer told me yesterday (when VW UK told me my dad's build week was 25 and mine was 26).
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 24 May 2013, 12:33
Bill the bear: Depends on the source of "estimated". I consider my conversation with dealer and VW UK only an estimated date. Until they can categorically say "it's getting built next week" I don't consider it confirmed. Quoted week 26 for me is still only a provisional week as far as VW UK are confirmed, although they admit that it should only be brought forward at this point if it moves at all.

Still, an "estimated" date for an order that's come from the dealer's mouth which hasn't been amended in the meantime is probably as "definite" as you can get right now.

Based on estimated dates, are you seeing anything like no-one with ACC or sunroof getting a car made before week 32 etc? I think I may be amongst the earliest BW for a GTD from my recollection of other postings.

I get what you are saying.  However, at least four people who give me the entire order number have "BW confirmed" showing on the website, yet only one of them could give a confirmed BW in the survey.  Their dealers should be able to in these cases and from people who haven't responded yet or didn't give the full order number there must be even more than four!


Still can't believe four guys already have "Confirmed"  build dates showing on the tracker & mine is still showing "Processing"... I must have been one of the earliest to place my order back in March when the order books first opened (29.03.13).



Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 24 May 2013, 13:35
Still can't believe four guys already have "Confirmed"  build dates showing on the tracker & mine is still showing "Processing"... I must have been one of the earliest to place my order back in March when the order books first opened (29.03.13).

That'll be five with my dad's! Any order changes Gung-Ho? i'm convinced you get bumped down the queue with changes made. Mine isn't confirmed and will be a week after my dad's according to VW UK (but not according to the dealer  :undecided:), I changed my paint colour 2 weeks after ordering and my dad ordered 3 days after me but never made a change. Clearly no delay issues with DSG boxes.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 24 May 2013, 14:39
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Interestingly the first two orders placed have slightly higher order numbers than orders placed in the next 2-3 days.  Perhaps it was a weekend or something and they were beaten to it when the system updated on Monday.  I'm speculating of course.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 24 May 2013, 15:29
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Interestingly the first two orders placed have slightly higher order numbers than orders placed in the next 2-3 days.  Perhaps it was a weekend or something and they were beaten to it when the system updated on Monday.  I'm speculating of course.

Orders could be processed on the Saturday of the Easter weekend. My Good Friday order was processed and acknowledged the next day (with VW order number emailed back to me from my dealer) because unusually the admin staff were all in on the Saturday. I suspect that for most dealerships, a weekend order would have been processed on the Monday following the weekend (or Tuesday in the case of the Easter weekend).
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 24 May 2013, 16:04
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Interestingly the first two orders placed have slightly higher order numbers than orders placed in the next 2-3 days.  Perhaps it was a weekend or something and they were beaten to it when the system updated on Monday.  I'm speculating of course.

Orders could be processed on the Saturday of the Easter weekend. My Good Friday order was processed and acknowledged the next day (with VW order number emailed back to me from my dealer) because unusually the admin staff were all in on the Saturday. I suspect that for most dealerships, a weekend order would have been processed on the Monday following the weekend (or Tuesday in the case of the Easter weekend).

Yeah... I'm almost certain that's what happened. Because it was the BH weekend, my order was most likely placed the following Tuesday.

In answer to your first question... No... No changes were made to the original order. I would have thought it was pretty straightforward really. The only options were Performance Pack, DCC & 19" Santiago's.  It's not like I ordered day glo paint or alligator covered sports seats!!!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 24 May 2013, 16:07
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Whaaaaat!!! That SUCKS!!! Big time!!!

The only consolation is that my dealer has confirmed their system is showing provisional Week 27.... Lets hope that's accurate.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 24 May 2013, 16:23
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Whaaaaat!!! That SUCKS!!! Big time!!!

The only consolation is that my dealer has confirmed their system is showing provisional Week 27.... Lets hope that's accurate.

Is better than provisional week 37 I can tell you that.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 24 May 2013, 16:50
Gung-Ho: My information says you are the second order ever placed (that we know about).  You were beaten to the post by one day.  The earliest order with BW confirmed on the tracker was placed a couple of days after you.  Not sure if that is good news or bad.

Whaaaaat!!! That SUCKS!!! Big time!!!

The only consolation is that my dealer has confirmed their system is showing provisional Week 27.... Lets hope that's accurate.

Is better than provisional week 37 I can tell you that.

Hahaha....  :grin: Thanx Bear... That makes me feel a lot better!!! (NOT)  :grin:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Kendo44 on 24 May 2013, 21:40
Unable to complete as you don't list Carbon Grey in the Colours!

Hi there how did you manage to order one in Carbon Grey ?

I love that colour but it wasn't an option, so I went with Oryx white!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: AAddict on 24 May 2013, 21:43
Unable to complete as you don't list Carbon Grey in the Colours!

Hi there how did you manage to order one in Carbon Grey ?

I love that colour but it wasn't an option, so I went with Oryx white!

I think Carbon Grey has always been an option on the dealers computer system, it's only the configurator on vw.co.uk that's never shown it. It's in the brochure too.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: linc-dub on 25 May 2013, 18:17
Carbon Grey apparently was available on VW system at orders open day, but as said is not on the VW configurator - I stuck out & asked my salesman to check for Carbon Grey and that was when he learnt it was actually available - that'll be the 4th Carbon Grey for me - ace colour - the new Black!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Kendo44 on 27 May 2013, 17:32

I had emailed VW and asked why carbon grey was not available and they said decisions on colour availability were market dependent, and not all colours were available in all markets, so stupidly I took that as gospel and never asked the dealer about carbon grey!!

Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 28 May 2013, 08:50
Is better than provisional week 37 I can tell you that.

Which in turn is better than provisionals week 38  :grin:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 10:29
Is better than provisional week 37 I can tell you that.

Which in turn is better than provisionals week 38  :grin:

Which poor soul is wk38? :sad: I thought I was the worst at wk37!

There are about 8 responses to the survey I've not yet gone over, hopefully I can do that today and add them to my analysis.  To be honest though, things are looking pretty random.  The only thing that seems to reliably delay an order is the sunroof, and I think that has just been blown out of the water with one of the recent responses I got.  If I had to put money on how they pick which order things get built in right now... I'd say they pull numbers out of a hat. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 10:43
I'd say they pull numbers out of a hat. :rolleyes:

This seems the most likely outcome!!  :rolleyes: :grin:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 11:07
Ok chaps,

Of those who were kind enough to give me their full order number four are currently showing "BW confirmed" on the VW website.  While there may well be more (didn't give me number, website not updated, or just never filled in the survey) its interesting to look at these four to see if a pattern emerges:

Answer:
It does not.  All four orders are very different.

Analysis:
There are two GTDs (both 5door DSG) and two GTIs (both manual, one each 3 and 5 door)
Options selected across all four include:

So logically we'd conclude none of the above should give rise to a delay (decide for yourselves if you consider VW to be logical).  I do suppose if they have a shortage of an item such as the DSG they may ration them... so perhaps some lucky fellows get early ones and others have to wait longer.

And if anyone wants to explain they "no GTDs built until August" be my guest.  VW are either lying about that or lying to the above two people about their GTD BW.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 11:10
Interesting Bear.  There must be a pattern somewhere but I can't see it either.  Welcome to the random world of VW  :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 28 May 2013, 11:34
The only pattern I can see is that for GTDs DSG seems to be getting built before manual. Not sure if my dad's GTD is amongst Bear's 2 confirmed GTDs or whether it is no 3. Could mean nowt if all the early ordered manual GTDs have had order tweaks (like me for colour) and that has bumped them a little.

Seems odd to me that mcmaddy is in there so much later than my dad at our dealership (3 x GTDs from Pulman) even though he got in there with an earlier order number unless:

1. His order changes put him behind my dad in build order.

2. Being bumped to 3rd in the Pulman queue (assumed following changes or perhaps for options) has pushed him into a whole new allocation month for Pulman.

Could make sense. If my dad has ended up at the front of the Pulman queue due to mine and mcmaddys changes then maybe he's snagged Pulman's June build allocation (middle June), I have been bumped to Pulman's July build allocation (right at the end of June/start of July) and mcmaddy bumped to Pulman's August build allocation (the larger gap between mine and his could be attributed to VW plant shutdown in August). That is the most logical explanation I can come up with if there is any logic in this.

All the above assumes allocation plays as big a part as when you ordered and what you ordered. If that's the case then if you're say, the eighth person to order a GTi or GTD from a certain dealership even if you all ordered very early on (and all have 2317 or 2318 order no's), you could still be in for an epic wait.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 11:40
I popped into Vindis Cambridge on Friday to be nosy.  I didn't order from them but since they are my local dealer I wanted to see a GTI demo in the flesh, so to speak.  Spoke to an odd fellow who seemed unable to look in any one direction for more than two seconds and rambled far too much when asked simple questions like "Do you have a GTI demo in yet?"

However, I asked if he had taken any order and the answer, which lasted a good five minutes they way he gave it, distilled down to "No.".  So, if anyone fancies an early GTI you could try your luck with them.  Then again, if the north-south theory holds maybe this won't help much.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 28 May 2013, 11:50
I popped into Vindis Cambridge on Friday to be nosy.  I didn't order from them but since they are my local dealer I wanted to see a GTI demo in the flesh, so to speak.  Spoke to an odd fellow who seemed unable to look in any one direction for more than two seconds and rambled far too much when asked simple questions like "Do you have a GTI demo in yet?"

However, I asked if he had taken any order and the answer, which lasted a good five minutes they way he gave it, distilled down to "No.".  So, if anyone fancies an early GTI you could try your luck with them.  Then again, if the north-south theory holds maybe this won't help much.

Perhaps VW UK snagged a number of GTI demo vehicles and were offering them up first to dealerships that already had orders in? That would imply though that those shysters at Benfield have already taken orders as they have one each at 2 of their branches. I pity those fools who paid full RRP and accepted a poor p/x value for their current car by buying from Benfield (unless they had a change of heart following me letting them know they missed out on 2 GTD sales.  :drool:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 11:52
I popped into Vindis Cambridge on Friday to be nosy.  I didn't order from them but since they are my local dealer I wanted to see a GTI demo in the flesh, so to speak.  Spoke to an odd fellow who seemed unable to look in any one direction for more than two seconds and rambled far too much when asked simple questions like "Do you have a GTI demo in yet?"

However, I asked if he had taken any order and the answer, which lasted a good five minutes they way he gave it, distilled down to "No.".  So, if anyone fancies an early GTI you could try your luck with them.  Then again, if the north-south theory holds maybe this won't help much.

Bear, what was his answer to if they have a demo/when are they getting one?  I didn't order from them but its a bearable drive in order to see one if its coming soon.  I think it was Swaston (spelling?) Cambridge that I went into just after I ordered and he hadn't taken an order either (mind you, was early April!).  I've had no due date on my own dealer's demo either (North Hertfordshire) and he would have let me know if it was coming soon - and this leads me to believe what monkeyhanger was saying about there being some regional bias.  Would be interesting to know what data VW based that decision on?!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 11:58
Bear, what was his answer to if they have a demo/when are they getting one?  I didn't order from them but its a bearable drive in order to see one if its coming soon.

He waffled like a master salesman.  From what I could decipher the answer was "imminently, probably next week".  Its unclear to me why he didn't just say "I expect one next week but can't give you an exact date".  I think he likes to waffle and I, unsuspecting poor fool that I am, gave him the chance he was waiting for.

I shouldn't be too harsh, he was trying to help. :grin:

EDIT: I work just around the corner from this dealer so there is a good chance I'll spot their's when it comes in.  If so I'll PM you.  I was hoping their website would have some details, such as information on their so called launch event, but sadly it is a waste of space.  I may point this out to them next time I go to be nosy.

EDIT2: I'm slightly unsure how to play it with them since I didn't order from them and they don't know it.  I don't want to come off as a 'wannabe' there to waste their time, but I imagine if I tell them I've already ordered one elsewhere they won't be inclined to offer test drives or anything since they'll not be getting anything out of it... except I suppose I'll want to service it with them so there is that.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 12:55
EDIT: I work just around the corner from this dealer so there is a good chance I'll spot their's when it comes in.  If so I'll PM you.  I was hoping their website would have some details, such as information on their so called launch event, but sadly it is a waste of space.  I may point this out to them next time I go to be nosy.

EDIT2: I'm slightly unsure how to play it with them since I didn't order from them and they don't know it.  I don't want to come off as a 'wannabe' there to waste their time, but I imagine if I tell them I've already ordered one elsewhere they won't be inclined to offer test drives or anything since they'll not be getting anything out of it... except I suppose I'll want to service it with them so there is that.

Yeah a PM would be good if it comes in!  And as for the test drive, I would suggest doing what I'm going to do if I get a chance to drive one before my dealer gets his - pretend I haven't ordered one!  :wink:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 13:47
Yeah a PM would be good if it comes in!  And as for the test drive, I would suggest doing what I'm going to do if I get a chance to drive one before my dealer gets his - pretend I haven't ordered one!  :wink:

I'll let you know then.

So far I haven't let on that I ordered one already, but I kinda feel a bit guilty asking for a test drive knowing I'm then going to say I'm not interested.  Also, you know they're going to try the hard sell!  Last time I went into a dealer (Ford in Bedford) they want to "fill out a quick form" before they'd give me a test drive, and that turned out to be a full questionnaire on what I wanted to buy and my contact details so they could pester me about it.  All under the guise of administration.  Makes me think its not worth the effort.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 13:51
Here is an idea of how long people are waiting (estimated since few are confirmed) after placing an order.  I made my own "Order ID" to protect people's names and order numbers.

(http://i.imgur.com/8u4nOOo.png)
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 13:58
Orders 22 & 38 are outrageous!!  good work though, think what we can glean from this is that we will all be waiting a very long time  :sad:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 28 May 2013, 14:03
Great chart, I think I can identify me and my dad there. I'm guessing the shortest waiter (8 weeks, ID12) has ordered late (compared to many of us) from their dealer but was still the first person to order from that dealer and so has had a favourable estimated BW.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 14:18
Chaps, just keep in mind these are estimated BWs as we don't have many confirmed yet.  I'm still suspicious (hopeful) that for whatever reason some people are being estimated BWs in the 30s, which will later become low 30s or high 20s.  I say hopeful because I'm one of the ones with the high estimated 30s BW. :whistle:

However, this is what we have to go on at the moment.  FYI the mean waiting is 3.5 months, the lowest is 1.9 and the highest is 5.5!  This doesn't include shipping which will add at least another 0.5 month I guess.  Now even that isn't very useful just yet because if we are seeing conservative estimates from VW for some people it will skew the mean to the high end.  Also since some of us ordered ridiculously early that will also have the effect of skewing the mean to the high end because we've introduced an effective minimum wait for some orders.

As soon as I can be more precise I will post more but I think we might have to wait a couple weeks before we have better info.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 14:21
As soon as I can be more precise I will post more but I think we might have to wait a couple weeks before we have better info.

According to VW all orders were to have been allocated from BW22 ie. confirmed BWs, so I don't think we should hold our breath!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 15:12
After a few e mails from my Lease Company (Company Vehicle ordered through Listers VW of Worcester) I now have an order number. Admitedly I only ordered my 3dr GTD Pure white on 17.05.2013 (changed to Tornado red on 20.05.13 & back to pure white on 24.05.13, but it does not recognise the order number. Does anyone want to hazard a guess when I will see mine?? Please don't say November or December as I don't think I could make it!!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 15:20
After a few e mails from my Lease Company (Company Vehicle ordered through Listers VW of Worcester) I now have an order number. Admitedly I only ordered my 3dr GTD Pure white on 17.05.2013 (changed to Tornado red on 20.05.13 & back to pure white on 24.05.13, but it does not recognise the order number. Does anyone want to hazard a guess when I will see mine?? Please don't say November or December as I don't think I could make it!!

Did you fill in the survey? If so I can find the closest match to you and let you know that orders estimated BW.  As it happens I ordered from Listers myself.   I went GTI though, and I don't know if the get separate allocation by location as they've got a few showrooms.  My BW is currently 37.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 28 May 2013, 15:21
Orders 22 & 38 are outrageous!!  good work though, think what we can glean from this is that we will all be waiting a very long time  :sad:

I totally agree, seeing as though mine's number 22!  :rolleyes:  Oh well, like I've said previous, nothing I can do but wait...  :whistle:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mcmaddy on 28 May 2013, 15:25
i wouldnt get too hung up on build weeks just yet. Having just spoken to the salesman im buying from he has said estimated build weeks will come forward and thats from VW themselves. My change of adding DCC hasnt pushed my order back according to him so we'll wait and see what happens.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 15:25
Orders 22 & 38 are outrageous!!  good work though, think what we can glean from this is that we will all be waiting a very long time  :sad:

I totally agree, seeing as though mine's number 22!  :rolleyes:  Oh well, like I've said previous, nothing I can do but wait...  :whistle:

Oops!  :lipsrsealed: :shocked:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 15:25
Bill_The_Bear, Yes I filled in the survey but I didn't have my order number at the time so had to leave it blank. Should I go back in & re do it now I have it?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 28 May 2013, 15:35
Having just spoken to the salesman im buying from he has said estimated build weeks will come forward and thats from VW themselves.

Except the mo fo's have pushed my build backwards 2 weeks!!  :angry: :laugh:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 28 May 2013, 15:59
I don't believe anything from VW right now.  Not even sure the GTI really exists!  :grin:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 16:01
Bill_The_Bear, Yes I filled in the survey but I didn't have my order number at the time so had to leave it blank. Should I go back in & re do it now I have it?

I'm quite keen to have people fill in the full order number where they are willing to do that because that way I can get the best information about when an order becomes a confirmed BW, and is therefore a reliable estimate of how long between order and build.  This can then be applied to orders that don't yet have confirmed BWs so we can estimate them and make predictions about what factors might delay an order such as a particular option.  If you fill the form in again and give the full order number it will of course not be shared anywhere.

However, I can tell you about the closest order to your without it.  The closest match to yours was ordered a month before, so extrapolating I'd predict a BW of 30.  However, I might be overestimating how long because early orders obviously couldn't begin prior to week 22 anyway, so a long estimate for them  doesn't necessarily mean a long estimate for you.

EDIT:
Oh yes, and we're far from convinced that similar orders mean similar BWs... but right now that is the best I've got to go on.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 16:16
Quote
I'm quite keen to have people fill in the full order number where they are willing to do that because that way I can get the best information about when an order becomes a confirmed BW, and is therefore a reliable estimate of how long between order and build.  This can then be applied to orders that don't yet have confirmed BWs so we can estimate them and make predictions about what factors might delay an order such as a particular option.  If you fill the form in again and give the full order number it will of course not be shared anywhere.

Submitted again with full order number.
By the way just had a 'Tweet' from @ VWUKHELP to say that the specification of the car can have an impact on your build week. They weren't anymore specific than that, & never mentioned which particular 'fitted extras' are causing delays to build weeks.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: MkVIIGTD on 28 May 2013, 16:35
Resubmitted with order number
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 16:42
Cheers both!

By the way just had a 'Tweet' from @ VWUKHELP to say that the specification of the car can have an impact on your build week. They weren't anymore specific than that, & never mentioned which particular 'fitted extras' are causing delays to build weeks.

Ask 'em? :tongue:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: OF1 on 28 May 2013, 17:22
i wouldnt get too hung up on build weeks just yet. Having just spoken to the salesman im buying from he has said estimated build weeks will come forward and thats from VW themselves. My change of adding DCC hasnt pushed my order back according to him so we'll wait and see what happens.

My dealer has strongly emphasised to me also, that build weeks will come forward from the estimate.

Mine is a GTD however with a provisional BW of Wk 36!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 28 May 2013, 17:43
My dealer has strongly emphasised to me also, that build weeks will come forward from the estimate.

Mine is a GTD however with a provisional BW of Wk 36!

Wait! Wat? According to my data your provisional is Wk24...! :angry: You been telling me porkies? :grin: :grin:

Anyway, better if its 36, I've spent way longer than I should have puzzling over why your estimated BW is before MkVIIGTD and others who picked the same car as you a month before you and yet won't be built until a month later.  Well now I know!  :tongue:

EDIT:
By better I mean more logical.  I honestly hope you get moved forward from wk36.  I'm also hoping to move out of the 30s.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: DougL on 28 May 2013, 18:56
And submitted a form to you!  :cool:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 28 May 2013, 19:45
Hi Bill_the_Bear iv order the golf gtd i got my order number today and filled in your chart. im guessing i ordered mine around the 4th of May (dnt really no the exact date but around that) any chance u could tell me what my build date would be or an estimate? thanks

P.S - I didnt add any extras as i thought i was happy what it inculded. But looking on changing the colour to carbon grey would it send me back down the line?

ordered - GOLF GTD 5 DOOR MANUAL PEARLESENT BLACK
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 19:48
Just had an update from my lease company..............my 3dr gtd pure white due for delivery 26.08.13. Est delivery to me 01.09.13
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 28 May 2013, 19:56
Just had an update from my lease company..............my 3dr gtd pure white due for delivery 26.08.13. Est delivery to me 01.09.13

when did u order yours mate im leasing mine myself? Did you have any extras added?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 19:58
Order confirmed 20.05.2013
No idea how they can tell me this, my order number isn't even registering on the website?????
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 28 May 2013, 20:09
I hope it is for u mate coz everyone else is getting false info from VW least u have abit of news, mine still says its processing on the tracking and i ordered mine at the end of april.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Nuggsy71 on 28 May 2013, 21:01
Just to add my bit.
Placed my order on the 6th May, and spoke to VW Uk today, and they have given me an estimated build week 28 - which after reading this board, doesn't seem too bad ! even if time seems to have stood still since the day the order went in.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 28 May 2013, 21:27
Just to add my bit.
Placed my order on the 6th May, and spoke to VW Uk today, and they have given me an estimated build week 28 - which after reading this board, doesn't seem too bad ! even if time seems to have stood still since the day the order went in.

That's interesting. I ordered mine on 6th May as well but no idea what the build week is. Think i'll give VW UK a call tomorrow
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 28 May 2013, 21:30
sorry lambo..........added standard sat nav & voice activation
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mcmaddy on 28 May 2013, 21:33
Just to add my bit.
Placed my order on the 6th May, and spoke to VW Uk today, and they have given me an estimated build week 28 - which after reading this board, doesn't seem too bad ! even if time seems to have stood still since the day the order went in.
no way on earth will that have build week of 28 if you ordered on 6th may. hope I'm wrong as few people on here have ordered 1 month earlier and they've got estimated week 34 (me included). which dealer have you ordered from if you don't mind me asking?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Nuggsy71 on 28 May 2013, 21:51
Ordered from Pullman Durham
I'd be surprised if it actually happens on BW28 - but that's what VW Uk told me today.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mcmaddy on 28 May 2013, 21:56
unless your the first person to order from the Durham branch? gives me a bit of hope that mine will come forward if you've been quoted WK 28. ordered mine 2nd April from Sunderland. have you been to see the red gti at Pulman yet?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Nuggsy71 on 28 May 2013, 21:58
unless your the first person to order from the Durham branch? gives me a bit of hope that mine will come forward if you've been quoted WK 28. ordered mine 2nd April from Sunderland. have you been to see the red gti at Pulman yet?
I went through at the weekend to have a look, but seems a manager had taken it home for the weekend !
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 28 May 2013, 22:06
Just to add my bit.
Placed my order on the 6th May, and spoke to VW Uk today, and they have given me an estimated build week 28 - which after reading this board, doesn't seem too bad ! even if time seems to have stood still since the day the order went in.

I ordered mine around the same time as u at VW Swindon and stil havnt been given a BW date but the leasing company are saying around end of August- September, anyone help me out here on how i can get more info about it?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mcmaddy on 28 May 2013, 22:09
unless your the first person to order from the Durham branch? gives me a bit of hope that mine will come forward if you've been quoted WK 28. ordered mine 2nd April from Sunderland. have you been to see the red gti at Pulman yet?
I went through at the weekend to have a look, but seems a manager had taken it home for the weekend !
yeah he did. it was in today when I went to pick my car up. very very nice.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Nuggsy71 on 28 May 2013, 22:15
unless your the first person to order from the Durham branch? gives me a bit of hope that mine will come forward if you've been quoted WK 28. ordered mine 2nd April from Sunderland. have you been to see the red gti at Pulman yet?
I went through at the weekend to have a look, but seems a manager had taken it home for the weekend !
yeah he did. it was in today when I went to pick my car up. very very nice.
Glad I didn't see it, as I would have probably ended up changing the colour !
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: OF1 on 28 May 2013, 22:17
My dealer has strongly emphasised to me also, that build weeks will come forward from the estimate.

Mine is a GTD however with a provisional BW of Wk 36!

Wait! Wat? According to my data your provisional is Wk24...! :angry: You been telling me porkies? :grin: :grin:

Anyway, better if its 36, I've spent way longer than I should have puzzling over why your estimated BW is before MkVIIGTD and others who picked the same car as you a month before you and yet won't be built until a month later.  Well now I know!  :tongue:

EDIT:
By better I mean more logical.  I honestly hope you get moved forward from wk36.  I'm also hoping to move out of the 30s.

Whatever I put into the sheet was correct, I can't remember it 100% off the top ofmy head though!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Kendo44 on 29 May 2013, 01:03
Hi Guys,

Please follow the below link to a form you can fill in with your order details.  Don't worry there is nothing personal asked for on the form.  This should help us put some stats together to understand what might be causing the delays in some/all orders.  I may post some graphs as a result of this but I won't post any specific details such as names/dates/order numbers.  I don't believe this information is sensitive but I won't post it anyway.  Giving a unique nickname is important to ensure there are not duplicates, and giving as much detail on dates and numbers is helpful, but don't feel you have to!

http://billthebear.wufoo.com/forms/mk7-gtigtd-order-analysis/



Some initial analysis.  Looking at the order numbers, with a couple of odd exceptions (and I also corrected what appeared to be some typos, its not 2012 any more guys!), there is a correlation between when you order and the number you get.

However, there is no correlation between the order you get and your estimated BW!

Thanks to those who provided the entire order number.  This is very helpful and soon I should be able to compare order number to website status and see if there is a correlation there.

(http://i.imgur.com/mTasIM1.png) (http://imgur.com/mTasIM1)



I am aware much of this info has been posted in threads and one of the stickys, but we're having a hard time keeping track of it so this would help a lot.

UPDATE: I noticed one or two of you have gone back and filled the form in again with more data.  This is good!  As long as you use the same nickname you can do this and I can see that additional information has been added, rather than a duplicate entry.

Bear.

Hi Bear, apologies if I am being thick, my dealer estimated that I would get my car either August or September but did not give me a date. I went to complete your form, however although my order number is showing build week confirmed on the tracker it does not give me an actual week number, should it? If not then how do I get the information to complete your form, do I have to contact the dealer.
Once I am clear on this I will complete the form, thanks for all your effort:-)
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 01:11
Hi Bear, apologies if I am being thick, my dealer estimated that I would get my car either August or September but did not give me a date. I went to complete your form, however although my order number is showing build week confirmed on the tracker it does not give me an actual week number, should it? If not then how do I get the information to complete your form, do I have to contact the dealer.
Once I am clear on this I will complete the form, thanks for all your effort:-)

If you've got BW confirmed on the website we're relatively confident that means the car will be built in about 4 weeks time.  Did it just switch recently?  So in this case I'd expect wk26.  How long ago was the order placed?  Seems odd they estimate Aug/Sept if the website had updated, unless they are being conservative.  The caveat is that it's not clear how the wk22 update going on will affect this, they might be updating things further out than usual.  If they are we could be seeing the start of many of us getting BW confirmed but the BW being more than the usual 4 weeks away.  The website doesn't give a specific week unfortunately.  You should have an order form from your dealer with the number on, in my case I had to sign and return it so I took a copy for my records.  If you are BW confirmed now I can manually update your entry if it is obvious which one it is, I'll check tomorrow.

There are a few unknowns here.  I'm expecting an email about my order from VW tomorrow and I think I will try to wring some info out of them on how this process works as it would make it a lot easier for all off us if we were confident of what things mean!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 01:17
Hi Bill_the_Bear iv order the golf gtd i got my order number today and filled in your chart. im guessing i ordered mine around the 4th of May (dnt really no the exact date but around that) any chance u could tell me what my build date would be or an estimate? thanks

P.S - I didnt add any extras as i thought i was happy what it inculded. But looking on changing the colour to carbon grey would it send me back down the line?

ordered - GOLF GTD 5 DOOR MANUAL PEARLESENT BLACK

I'll have a look for the closest match to your tomorrow.  Things to keep in mind though, we're working on a theory that regional or dealer variations can give different lead times and this may not become clear for a few weeks so while I can probably tell you the average of what others have got there is potentially a big variation between what now long each of us has to wait.  Hopefully in a few weeks we'll get better at guessing these things.

A couple of us think a colour change has bumped them down the list by one or two weeks.  It's currently impossible to be sure about this.  I think you should get the colour you want, but if you are very very desperate to minimise the wait then potentially this would increase it...
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 29 May 2013, 07:44
September delivery  :cry: :cry: :cry:

On the bright side that should just about coincide with summer up here  :grin:

Nice work Bill
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 29 May 2013, 08:21
Last Thursday was when my dad's order status changed to "build week confirmed", so with me supposedly having a BW26 im expecting BW22 notification tomorrow or Friday to change my tracker status. It might be too early in BW22 for BW26 people to receive their notification - might have to give it a few days.

I do wonder whether people with the longest quoted BW are 3rd/4th/5th in their dealership allocation queue. That would certainly seem the case for Pulman Sunderland on the assumption that both me and mcmaddy have been bumped behind my dad for order changes made.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 29 May 2013, 13:21
Guy's, this probably old news to most of you, but these quotes are taken off the 'track my order' section of the website, which tells us a bit about dealer allocation.

Why hasn't my order gone straight to being built?
Volkswagen UK operates what is called a managed supply system for most models, to ensure a fair distribution of available production across the retailer network. This means each retailer is allocated a set number of cars on a rolling three month basis. So when you place an order, it is advisable to check which month's allocation your car is intended for and if allocation is not available, whether it is possible to order from another retailer or when more vehicles may become available.

Why do some cars take longer than others?
For a bespoke new car that is ordered directly from the factory, lead times will vary depending on which model and specification you choose. For example our DSG gearboxes are always in high demand across the world so lead times of vehicles with DSG are extended. Where your car is built will also affect lead times as some of our factories are outside Europe and so are subject to extended shipping times. Your retailer has up-to-date information on lead times and we encourage you to discuss this with them if a short lead time is important to you.


Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Valenni on 29 May 2013, 13:37
Updated with my order number.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 29 May 2013, 13:45
I have updated for my estimated build week  :smiley:
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mackandmark on 29 May 2013, 14:16
Holy sh!t!! Just had this reply from my lease comapny (after being told last night delivery would be 01/09!!) confirmed order on 20.05.13 - Strap in everyone!!!

Hi Mark,

 

At the minute your order is at status: ‘unconfirmed build week 40’. This means that the factory estimate the vehicle to be built during week 40, which is the first week of October. Speaking to the dealership, they believe that once production begins this may come forward. By the time the build date is confirmed, they estimate this to be mid-September. You won’t see the vehicle any earlier than late-September but I would plan for early October.



Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gryzor on 29 May 2013, 14:19
Week 40 huh...makes my week 38 not sound so bad!  What a joke...
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: matchboy on 29 May 2013, 14:32
that's not good at all mate.  wtf are they playing at?!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: HA54SYM` on 29 May 2013, 14:44
Guy's, this probably old news to most of you, but these quotes are taken off the 'track my order' section of the website, which tells us a bit about dealer allocation.

Why hasn't my order gone straight to being built?
Volkswagen UK operates what is called a managed supply system for most models, to ensure a fair distribution of available production across the retailer network. This means each retailer is allocated a set number of cars on a rolling three month basis. So when you place an order, it is advisable to check which month's allocation your car is intended for and if allocation is not available, whether it is possible to order from another retailer or when more vehicles may become available.

Why do some cars take longer than others?
For a bespoke new car that is ordered directly from the factory, lead times will vary depending on which model and specification you choose. For example our DSG gearboxes are always in high demand across the world so lead times of vehicles with DSG are extended. Where your car is built will also affect lead times as some of our factories are outside Europe and so are subject to extended shipping times. Your retailer has up-to-date information on lead times and we encourage you to discuss this with them if a short lead time is important to you.

Yes as said, this could mean if you choose a long lead time option, and a dealer with no allocation for 3 months, you WILL get a later build week.

I can't see any dealer telling you the TRUTH about their allocation to be honest.

Dave
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Gung-Ho on 29 May 2013, 15:07

If you've got BW confirmed on the website we're relatively confident that means the car will be built in about 4 weeks time. 


I'm totally confused now???? Got an unexpected call from my dealer this afternoon to inform me that they had just taken delivery of a tornado red GTi for me to test drive but also to update me on my order.  Looks like my original 'provisional/ estimated' build week 27 has now been brought forward to 25???  (This can't be possible as we're already in BW 22, so in theory my order should be a definite confirmed)

I queried it saying that it was still showing "Processing" on the tracker (& not Confirmed), but he told me not to worry as the information online tracker was not always accurate! Huh???? :huh: :huh:

I'm none the wiser....
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 15:14
If you've got BW confirmed on the website we're relatively confident that means the car will be built in about 4 weeks time. 

I'm totally confused now???? Got an unexpected call from my dealer this afternoon to inform me that they had just taken delivery of a tornado red GTi for me to test drive but also to update me on my order.  Looks like my original 'provisional/ estimated' build week 27 has now been brought forward to 25???  (This can't be possible as we're already in BW 22, so in theory my order should be a definite confirmed)

I queried it saying that it was still showing "Processing" on the tracker (& not Confirmed), but he told me not to worry as the information online tracker was not always accurate! Huh???? :huh: :huh:

I'm none the wiser....

Well for some of us the tracker is bugged so... I think this means that IF the tracker was working properly for your order number THEN it would have changed to "build confirmed" in week 21... except because of the wk22 updates it would probably not have chenged until then.  However, you're dancing in the street then?  Wk25 is way better than anyone could hope for!  Mine isn't due to be made until 3 months after yours!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 17:08
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 29 May 2013, 17:12
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

Contact VW UK. That's what I did. My dealership couldn't give me a build week either
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 17:17
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

Contact VW UK. That's what I did. My dealership couldn't give me a build week either

cheers mate did u contact them by phone or email? have u got a build date now and when did u order yours (if u dnt mind me asking)
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 29 May 2013, 17:23
Contacted them via twitter. Ordered 6th May. Bw 27 1 july
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 17:40
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

Contact VW UK. That's what I did. My dealership couldn't give me a build week either

cheers mate did u contact them by phone or email? have u got a build date now and when did u order yours (if u dnt mind me asking)

I just spoke to them a few minutes ago:
http://www.golfgtiforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=254547.msg2334566#msg2334566

Contact via twitter or if you can wait I might soon post a more direct contact email address of this helpful lady who is helping me.

In general though I wouldn't worry too much.  Took ages for my dealer to give me an estimated BW and I think things are very confused over at VW at the moment.  We'll get to the bottom of this, don't worry.  No need to panic yet.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 18:41
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

Contact VW UK. That's what I did. My dealership couldn't give me a build week either

cheers mate did u contact them by phone or email? have u got a build date now and when did u order yours (if u dnt mind me asking)

I just spoke to them a few minutes ago:
http://www.golfgtiforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=254547.msg2334566#msg2334566

Contact via twitter or if you can wait I might soon post a more direct contact email address of this helpful lady who is helping me.

In general though I wouldn't worry too much.  Took ages for my dealer to give me an estimated BW and I think things are very confused over at VW at the moment.  We'll get to the bottom of this, don't worry.  No need to panic yet.

Hey Bear what do u think my BW would be or can u give me a estimate? i ordered mine around the beginning of May.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 18:59
Hey Bear what do u think my BW would be or can u give me a estimate? i ordered mine around the beginning of May.

I did drop you a reply here but you probably missed it because it was in the early hours of the morning!
http://www.golfgtiforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=254181.msg2334257#msg2334257

Give me about 10mins and I'll check now and give you my best guess.  Gotta remember a couple of things though.

Firstly, even similar orders seem to get very different estimated BWs.  For now we can only assume the ones getting far off BWs are going to be brought forward.  I'm trying to get some frank answers from VWUK on how reliable the estimates are and if we should be assuming they will come forward or not, but it probably will be a week from now until I next speak to them.

Secondly we don't actually have many confirmed BWs and going off the estimates is tricky, as even if they all line up we're still not sure how well they equate to the confirmed BWs as we dont have enough data yet.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 19:02
Hey Bear what do u think my BW would be or can u give me a estimate? i ordered mine around the beginning of May.

I did drop you a reply here but you probably missed it because it was in the early hours of the morning!
http://www.golfgtiforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=254181.msg2334257#msg2334257

Give me about 10mins and I'll check now and give you my best guess.  Gotta remember a couple of things though.

Firstly, even similar orders seem to get very different estimated BWs.  For now we can only assume the ones getting far off BWs are going to be brought forward.  I'm trying to get some frank answers from VWUK on how reliable the estimates are and if we should be assuming they will come forward or not, but it probably will be a week from now until I next speak to them.

Secondly we don't actually have many confirmed BWs and going off the estimates is tricky, as even if they all line up we're still not sure how well they equate to the confirmed BWs as we dont have enough data yet.

ok cheers Bear i did fill in ur survey twice but as i said i only had the order number so i dnt no how much that can help u get an estimate.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 29 May 2013, 19:16
ok cheers Bear i did fill in ur survey twice but as i said i only had the order number so i dnt no how much that can help u get an estimate.

Hmm, tough one.  The nearest order to yours that has a confirmed build is two weeks earlier than yours and due to be built probably last week of June or first week of July.  So my best guess is mid July build and not in the UK until August.  However, there are so many factors that could be at play such as how many ordered at the dealer you used? Does ordering 2 weeks later put you only 2 weeks behind or more?  Can we trust the confirmed BWs are 4 weeks out from when confirmed? ... right now we don't have good answers to those questions, but we might get a better idea in the next few weeks.

In your favor you have no DSG and no other options picked.  The lady I spoke to today about my order guessed that DSG is the biggest likely hold up, but I think she needs to do some digging to be certain of that... I'm unconvinced it really does cause a big delay.

Its too early to make confident guesses so please don't think I can tell you any more than VW can because until we learn a few more things I can't!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: mcmaddy on 29 May 2013, 19:57
it can't make any delays as monkeyhangers dad has ordered dsg and he is WK 25/26!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 20:44
ok cheers Bear i did fill in ur survey twice but as i said i only had the order number so i dnt no how much that can help u get an estimate.

Hmm, tough one.  The nearest order to yours that has a confirmed build is two weeks earlier than yours and due to be built probably last week of June or first week of July.  So my best guess is mid July build and not in the UK until August.  However, there are so many factors that could be at play such as how many ordered at the dealer you used? Does ordering 2 weeks later put you only 2 weeks behind or more?  Can we trust the confirmed BWs are 4 weeks out from when confirmed? ... right now we don't have good answers to those questions, but we might get a better idea in the next few weeks.

In your favor you have no DSG and no other options picked.  The lady I spoke to today about my order guessed that DSG is the biggest likely hold up, but I think she needs to do some digging to be certain of that... I'm unconvinced it really does cause a big delay.

Its too early to make confident guesses so please don't think I can tell you any more than VW can because until we learn a few more things I can't!

Cheers Bear great help appreciate that better info than my VW dealer. Mines on lease from the leasing company and they told me that it was ordered in VW Swindon. Il see if VW on twitter can get any info for me aswell.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: OF1 on 29 May 2013, 21:52
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

I ordered mine in April and have an estimated build week of 37 at the minute.

EDIT: 37, not 27!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: lambo1984 on 29 May 2013, 22:10
why havent i been given a build week date yet when i ordered my GTD at the beginning of May?  :huh:
and sems everyone on here has? anyone help me?

I ordered mine in April and have an estimated build week of 37 at the minute.

EDIT: 37, not 27!

Noway that's scandal that I'm hopeing I get a build week less than 30 as I haven't added any extras jus a pearlescent black paint but the way things are going it would surprise me if mine was over 30. JOKE!
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Kendo44 on 29 May 2013, 23:17


If you've got BW confirmed on the website we're relatively confident that means the car will be built in about 4 weeks time.  Did it just switch recently?  So in this case I'd expect wk26.  How long ago was the order placed?  Seems odd they estimate Aug/Sept if the website had updated, unless they are being conservative.  The caveat is that it's not clear how the wk22 update going on will affect this, they might be updating things further out than usual.  If they are we could be seeing the start of many of us getting BW confirmed but the BW being more than the usual 4 weeks away.  The website doesn't give a specific week unfortunately.  You should have an order form from your dealer with the number on, in my case I had to sign and return it so I took a copy for my records.  If you are BW confirmed now I can manually update your entry if it is obvious which one it is, I'll check tomorrow.

There are a few unknowns here.  I'm expecting an email about my order from VW tomorrow and I think I will try to wring some info out of them on how this process works as it would make it a lot easier for all off us if we were confident of what things mean!

Hi Bill thanks for your reply I filled in all the details on your form, other than build week. The VW configurator changed to Build week confirmed on Monday of this week.
Hopefully this info helps you.

Thanks again :-)

Quick update, I received an email from my dealer today, saying he expected to have my car early August :-)
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 03 June 2013, 12:55
Got a few more entries posted on the survey last couple of days so I thought I would update this thread with some more results:

Here are some averages (43 unique entries used, 33 with estimated, 6 with confirmed)

Average week ordered17.1
Average estimated build week31.9
Average confirmed build week28.7
Average from ordered to estimated15.2
Average from ordered to confirmed13.2

So on average we might expect confirmed BWs 2 weeks ahead of the estimated ones.  Have to be careful here as I think the variance is large, but haven't had time to calculate it.  Sample size remains small, as ever.

Now if you split out only the 6 confirmed BW orders the average estimated BW was 17 and the average confirmed BW was 13.2... almost 4 weeks earlier than the estimated.  However, I'm not 100% certain about using this as a couple of the confirmed orders had very poor estimates initially and they skew the data.  Ignoring them puts the average improvement back to about 2 weeks.

I want to try to correlate dates with specific options to see which, if any, reliably change the lead time.  I think it is hard to do though.  DSG in particular, usually said by VW to give a delay, does not seem to have any affect on the wait.  Possibly the sunroof... possibly.
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: CraigW on 03 June 2013, 13:33
Got a few more entries posted on the survey last couple of days so I thought I would update this thread with some more results:

Here are some averages (43 unique entries used, 33 with estimated, 6 with confirmed)

Average week ordered17.1
Average estimated build week31.9
Average confirmed build week28.7
Average from ordered to estimated15.2
Average from ordered to confirmed13.2

So on average we might expect confirmed BWs 2 weeks ahead of the estimated ones.  Have to be careful here as I think the variance is large, but haven't had time to calculate it.  Sample size remains small, as ever.

Now if you split out only the 6 confirmed BW orders the average estimated BW was 17 and the average confirmed BW was 13.2... almost 4 weeks earlier than the estimated.  However, I'm not 100% certain about using this as a couple of the confirmed orders had very poor estimates initially and they skew the data.  Ignoring them puts the average improvement back to about 2 weeks.

I want to try to correlate dates with specific options to see which, if any, reliably change the lead time.  I think it is hard to do though.  DSG in particular, usually said by VW to give a delay, does not seem to have any affect on the wait.  Possibly the sunroof... possibly.

I think we can safely summise now that there is no rhyme nor reason as to why some cars are built before others even though they may have been ordered later. I think this one is going to remain a mystery
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: monkeyhanger on 03 June 2013, 13:45

I think we can safely summise now that there is no rhyme nor reason as to why some cars are built before others even though they may have been ordered later. I think this one is going to remain a mystery

If there is any logic to why a late order is built earlier than an earlier order (with no order changes to bump an order) it has to be something to do with the dealership allocation. 1st order from a dealership that hasn't had any previous orders should trump order 3 or 4 from another dealership, even if they order 4/6/8 weeks after the dealership with multiple orders in.

This could explain why some cars get shifted forward or back with no seeming reason. Either there must be some "spare" unallocated orders that VW are holding for a dealership pot of 1st orders not yet made, and if they don't get filled with new 1st orders within a certain time then other non-1st orders already in move forward a week....

OR... if VW are allocated up for orders in already and a dealership slaps in his first order, could that bump back other orders already in that aren't the first order for a particular dealership?
Title: Re: GTI/GTD Order Date vs. Build Week Analysis
Post by: Bill_the_Bear on 03 June 2013, 13:48
These are questions only VW can answer.  We'd have to pressure our helpful Twitter lady to see if she can find out...

Unfortunately we'll never get enough information ourselves as we'd need to have people on here covering every order from half a dozen dealers to be able to then analyse the data.  Thats not going to happen.