How risky is it to buy first off the production line? I propose a study!

[Bill_the_Bear]

So, this thread (http://www.golfgtiforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=252525.10) got me thinking.  Has anyone ever actually done a quantitative study into the effects of buying a car early in its production cycle?  Many people, even us here on this forum, may have various experiences.  One might say they've never had an issue with a first batch car, another might say they've had several and each had problems.  But what does that actually mean?

On their own our personal experiences don't tell us much unfortunately.  Sure the guy down the pub says he has had trouble every time he bought early, but then perhaps he just didn't look after the cars well?  What about others who bought the same vehicle 2-3 years later, did they have the exact same problems too?  How much of a hassle is it?  A lose button on the dash is completely different to your engine overheating.  Would the dealers arrange repair for free, or should you expect to be paying out X% of the price you paid for the vehicle in fixing issues related to it being an early production batch?

Google has nothing!  Which had a vague article which suggested *some* people *might* have issues related to early production batches... but offers no evidence that this is actually the case.  I don't want to settle for that so I emailed all the major UK online car review sites, eleven of them in total.  I asked if anyone had a study that looked at the rate of issues related specifically to the vehicle being an early batch (i.e. issues that were fixed later) and the level of cost this resulted on the customers.  I asked if they had looked into it before or planned to in the future.

Almost immediately I got this very nice reply from the editor of AutoExpress:

Hello,

That's an excellent idea. The problem may well be digging through data, as manufacturers clearly wouldn't let us have access to any. However, we've just published our driver power report for 2013, so I'll have a chat with our research team to find out if it's something we can do.

So watch this space, and thank you very much once again.

With best regards,
Steve Fouler
Editor-in-chief Auto Express and Carbuyer

Here's hoping they can get their hands on some data!

I'll post back if any of the others reply.

[Jimble]

This will be the first car i've had so early in the production run so can't comment really but i'll watch this space with interest for sure! That's a great reply from Auto express though, good on ya 

[Bill_the_Bear]

This will be the first car i've had so early in the production run so can't comment really but i'll watch this space with interest for sure! That's a great reply from Auto express though, good on ya 

It seems like it will hinge on if they can get access to the data easily or not.  I'm encouraged that they think its worthwhile though!

[JoeGTI]

I had a MK1 Ford Focus which was one of the first of that model, I bought it off my Dad, he'd bought it new in 1999. It was plagued with stupid little niggles! Rattles, squeaks, recalls, you name it. It never actually broke down but it had so many damn annoying gremlins, needless to say I got to know the Ford service manager too well.
I later replaced it with another Focus in 2002 and that was totally trouble free. Clearly all the early issues were sorted out.
I hope history doesn't repeat itself with my new GTi!

[Bill_the_Bear]

I had a MK1 Ford Focus which was one of the first of that model, I bought it off my Dad, he'd bought it new in 1999. It was plagued with stupid little niggles! Rattles, squeaks, recalls, you name it. It never actually broke down but it had so many damn annoying gremlins, needless to say I got to know the Ford service manager too well.
I later replaced it with another Focus in 2002 and that was totally trouble free. Clearly all the early issues were sorted out.
I hope history doesn't repeat itself with my new GTi!

But thats my point, how do you know if your experience is typical or unusual?  Its not clear that these issues you experienced were directly caused by the vehicle being an early production batch or that they would be avoided if your dad had waited a year or two.  May be or may be not.  It would become clear with a bigger sample of data because it is only the averages that are important (unless the population has a extremely low variance, but you need a real good reason to make this assumption, strangely enough us humans tend to assume all our experiences are part of a population with a variance of basically zero, cause we are weird like that).

Remember, mk1 Focus was a complete new design to replace the Escort.  I don't think thats quite the same as moving from mk6 Golf to mk7 Golf where the differences are significantly less.  VW in particular is standardising a lot of its parts and features so even new equipment on the mk7 Golf is far from seeing its first ever real world use.

In case I come across negative I don't mean to at all, but I'm not good with words.  I've heard many experiences like the one you describe having, but I want to understand if what the average effect is so I know what the risk of buying new really is.

[Snoopy]

Typical is easy.
Trade talk information + forum posts on many forums world wide.

Do a search for VW recent car issues.
Here's a few off the top of my head.
Mk5 golfs,
Rust issues, wings, rear door sills, hatch badge hole, front of sills on early cars due production robot gripping it.
Cam issues,
DSG mecatronics unit failures.
1.4 TSI mk5 engine failures see below as well.
TDI mk5 turbo failures.

1.4 TSI polo, fabia, a1, cupra
chain tensioner issues, = new engine
Fueling issues, = new engine.
DSG 7 speed box issues. = new gearbox or mecatronics unit.
Early cars paint issues and panel fit issues.

Mk6 GTI golfs
Chain tensioner issues
Water pump issues
Diverter valve issues
Turbo issues,
Breather pipe issues,
Waste gate issue,
TDI turbo failures.
DSG mecatronic unit failures....

I could go on but I think you may get the point I get to hear about things from people who work in the motor trade...

[p3asa]

I vaguely remember one of my old Uncles working for British Leyland and he would tell us about things going wrong on the production line with models, especially the new lines. The workers would flag it to the supervisors but rather than fixing it there and then they were encouraged just to get the car out and sold, as it was preferable for the new owner to bring it back to be sorted rather than hold up the production line!!

How many pre production cars like the MK7 Golf will VW make and test prior to them churning them out of the production line?
I'm not saying they do this but surely there is nothing to stop them putting them into production thinking they are well put together only to find several owners complain about "a" particular problem and then altering the design once a problem has been highlighted.

They can have as much research & development in place as they want but actual real drivers driving the cars in every day situations will be the ones who finds the real faults!!

[Bill_the_Bear]

Forum searches are not a controlled test though so its impossible to draw any conclusions.

[Bill_the_Bear]

I vaguely remember one of my old Uncles working for British Leyland and he would tell us about things going wrong on the production line with models, especially the new lines. The workers would flag it to the supervisors but rather than fixing it there and then they were encouraged just to get the car out and sold, as it was preferable for the new owner to bring it back to be sorted rather than hold up the production line!!

Went bust didnt they? 

[p3asa]

Indeed but I doubt its much different today. Why stop a production line when they know the customer will simply bring it back!!